Flood and Drought Management Tools project at HAII (18 May 2015 – 5 June 2015)
During the three week Thailand visit by the DHI team (Jakob Luchner and Neils Riegels) from the F&DMT project, DHI, EGAT, TMD, RID, IWA, and HAII held two meetings to discuss drought management components: input and output process, bias correction methodologies, and operational seasonal prediction. The DHI team and HAII discussed and worked on data availability, seasonal and long term prediction, drought indices construction, model evaluation development, as well as water management and planning. The details are as follows:
The DHI team and HAII discussed about the availability of RCM accessing web sites, the observed climate data, the bias correction methodology, the analysis of climate in present and future periods, the scenarios and the output products.
The ensemble of CORDEX-East Asia climate data forced by multiple global climate models will be employed in this project, and multiple dynamical and statistical downscaling models will be applied. The present and predicted climate data, daily and monthly, will be used to assess the future impact of the conditions such as precipitation, temperature and evaporation. The optimizing quantile mapping was proposed to be one alternative option for bias correcting process. Furthermore, other extreme indices that will also be analyzed are maximum 1, 2, 3, and 5 days, intensity, frequency, dry spell length, and consecutive dry day, etc. In particular, the RClimDex was proposed to be one of the extreme indices analysis tool.
Another topic of discussion was the workflow of the Planning Decision Support System (DSS), which includes accessing and processing seasonal forecast data. The selected input data are TMD and HAII station data and CFSv2 seasonal forecast data. Many R libraries IN hydrological and meteorological research such as downscaleR, esd, verification, SPI and SPEI libraries are options to be used in the MIKE customized platform to develop the F&DMT. The expected output products comprise the seasonal forecast for precipitation,temperature and evaporation, and forecasted drought indices.
The conceptual decision making process for seasonal irrigation planning for Chao Phraya River Basin was brought up for the discussion to ensure the same understanding. The issues included the monthly adaptation of dry season plan in the Chao Phraya River Basin, the objectives, the constraints and uncertainties, the workflow and the evaluation plan. Finally, DHI team and related agencies summarized the possible solution to deal with the uncertainties of seasonal irrigation planning.
F&DMT: Flood and Drought Management Tools
IWA: The International Water Association
DHI: Danish Hydraulic Institute
EGAT: Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
RID: Royal Irrigation Department
TMD: Thai Meteorological Department
HAII: Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute